LONDON—Global energy demand will dramatically increase over the next 20 years, but turmoil in many key producing regions and the difficulties in formulating the right energy policies mean the world may not be able to respond with adequate supply and meet its climate change goals, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
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Among the big energy stories of 2013, “peak oil” — the once-popular notion that worldwide oil production would soon reach a maximum level and begin an irreversible decline — was thoroughly discredited. The explosive development of shale oil and other unconventional fuels in the United States helped put it in its grave.
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It was as if the International Energy Agency were appearing on the old American television game show To Tell the Truth last week as it offered a third contradictory forecast in the space of a year.
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In its new World Energy Outlook (WEO), the IEA is cautious about the prospects of unconventional oil and gas outside the US. As regards shale gas, it notes that “uncertainty remains over the quality, the costs and public acceptance.” Yet in an interview with Energy Post, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven notes that “the gas is there. All geologists are agreed on that.” Moreover, “there may be other surprises in store, for example with methane hydrates”, she says. “We cannot rule out that new revolutions may take place.”
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The U.S. will surpass Russia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015, and be close to energy self-sufficiency in the next two decades, amid booming output from shale formations, the International Energy Agency said.
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Two years ago, Saudi Arabia started mulling the prospects of shale natural gas as it faced the possibility of running short on energy supplies. The largest oil exporter in the world said it’s now ready to replicate the shale gas success in the United States and use its own unconventional reserves to keep the lights on. The shale boom in the United States has turned the global energy market on its head. The director of the International Energy Agency said, however, coal was still the fuel of choice.
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The Paris-based International Energy Agenda (IEA), founded in 1973-74 by the advanced industrialized countries in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, has published projections according to which the share of natural gas in the global energy mix will continue to increase, but more slowly than earlier believed due to European weakness of demand and problems in the Middle East and Africa with upstream production growth.
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Canadian oil production is projected to surge over the next five years, but with some bumps along the way, part of what the International Energy Agency calls a “supply shock” from the North American boom.
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One does not hear much these days about “peak oil”, as new technologies are developed and implemented that, together with market conditions, make feasible the exploitation of previously uneconomical or irretrievable deposits. A new report by the Diplomatic Center for Strategic Studies (DCSS), based in Kuwait, just published, confirms an International Energy Agency report from two years ago, estimating that under present rates of consumption, global supplies of natural gas could last up to 250 years, until the middle of the twenty-third century.
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Canada’s defiant oil industry shrugged off criticism as it cranked up production to four million barrels per day last December – its highest ever output, according to the International Energy Agency.
“Canadian oil production has increased rapidly over the last several months, reaching an all-time high of 4.1 mbpd in December on the back of a record one million bpd in synthetic crude output from surface mining operations,” the IEA said in a report published Wednesday.
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